Jurnal Tataloka
Vol 23, No 3 (2021): Volume 23 No. 3, August 2021

Analisis Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Dan Prediksinya dengan Menggunakan Markov – Cellular Automata Di Wilayah Peri Urban Kota Malang

Mirza Permana (Institut Pertanian Bogor)
Santun Risma Pandopatan Sitorus (Institut Pertanian Bogor)
Darmawan Darmawan (Institut Pertanian Bogor)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Aug 2021

Abstract

Peri Urban Area is a unique region with spatial dynamics that continues to experience changes that have an important role to play in the urban life in the future. There are 8 sub-districts in Malang Regency which are directly adjacent to Malang City and have a significant influence on the development of the city. Objectives of this research are to determine the dynamics of land use change from 2008 - 2018 and to predict land use in 2030. The method used is the analysis of land use changes from landsat TM 8 images in 2008 and 2013 to predict land use in 2018 which then tested the validity to get a level of accuracy. The results showed the development of built-up area has increased by 12% while agricultural land has experienced a declining trend. Significant changes occurred in Singosari, Pakisaji and Karangploso sub-district. Validation of land use between the predictions of 2018 and actual land use in 2018 showed that the value of kappa was quite high, at 87%. The trend of land use in peri-urban areas until the year 2030 is predicted to have built up area of 26,456 ha, which means an increase 17,686 ha (33.6%) from the existing year 2018. The potential incompatibility of the RTRW with the predicted land use in 2030 is 11,950 ha or 22.7%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

tataloka

Publisher

Subject

Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture

Description

Jurnal Tataloka is a peer reviewed journal publishing scientific articles, focusing mainly on research and studies in the field of urban and regional planning. TATALOKA Journal is published quarterly by Biro Penerbit Planologi (Planologi Publishing), Diponegoro University every February, May, ...