Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan
2021: Vol. 14, No. 2, Agustus 2021 (pp.243-431)

The Dynamics of Credit Procyclicality and Stability of Macroeconomics in Indonesia

Ni Putu Nina Eka Lestari (Undiknas University)
Made Kembar Sri Budhi (Udayana University)
I Ketut Sudama (Udayana University)
Ni Nyoman Reni Suasih (Udayana University)
I Nyoman Taun (Undiknas University)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Aug 2021

Abstract

Credit growth is one of the important indicators of the financial system that can drive the country economic growth, but on the other hand credit growth can also cause risks in the financial system due to the economic actors’ moral hazard. The purpose of this research is to analyze the credit procyclicality pattern and economic growth in Indonesia. In addition, this study aims to determine the relationship pattern between credit and some macroeconomic variables. The method used is VECM with quarterly time series data during 1998 until 2016. The analysis shows that credit growth and economic growth have positive causality. This shows pro-cyclicality between credit and economic growth in Indonesia. However, in the long run this pattern shows a downward trend although still positive and permanent, which means that excessive credit growth can also lead to a decline in economic growth.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jekt

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan is an academic journal focused on publishing empirical research papers, with a particular emphasis on the use of quantitative analysis tools—such as econometrics, parametric and non-parametric statistics, descriptive statistics, input-output analysis, computable ...