Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Vol 24, No 3: December 2021

An agent based model for assessing transmission dynamics and health systems burden for COVID-19

Narassima M. S. (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham)
Anbuudayasankar S. P. (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham)
Guru Rajesh Jammy (Allied Research and Education (SHARE-INDIA))
Rashmi Pant (Allied Research and Education (SHARE-INDIA))
Lincoln Choudhury (Krashapana Consultancy Private Limited)
Aadharsh Ramakrishnan (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham)
Denny John (Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Centre)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Dec 2021

Abstract

Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused over 230 million infections with more than 4 million deaths worldwide. Researches have been using various mathematical and simulation techniques to estimate the future trends of the pandemic to help the policymakers and healthcare fraternity. Agent-based models (ABM) could provide accurate projections than the compartmental models that have been largely used. The present study involves a simulation of ABM using a synthetic population from India to analyze the effects of interventions on the spread of the disease. A disease model with various states representing the possible progression of the disease was developed and simulated using AnyLogic. The results indicated that imposing stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) lowered the peak values of infections, the proportion of critical patients, and the deceased. Stricter interventions offer a larger time window for the healthcare fraternity to enhance preparedness. The findings of this research could act as a start-point to understand the benefits of ABM-based models for projecting infectious diseases and analyzing the effects of NPI imposed.

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