International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Vol 12, No 4: August 2022

An agent-based model to assess coronavirus disease 19 spread and health systems burden

Madhavarao Seshadri Narassima (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham)
Singallur Palanisamy Anbuudayasankar (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham)
Guru Rajesh Jammy (Allied Research and Education)
AnanthaPadmanabhan Sankarshana (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham)
Rashmi Pant (Allied Research and Education)
Lincoln Choudhury (Krashapana Consultancy Private Limited)
Vijay Yeldandi (Allied Research and Education)
Shubham Singh (Tata Consultancy Services Limited)
Denny John (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Aug 2022

Abstract

The present pandemic has tremendously raised the health systems’ burden around the globe. It is important to understand the transmission dynamics of the infection and impose localized strategies across different geographies to curtail the spread of the infection. The present study was designed to assess the transmission dynamics and the health systems’ burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach. The study used a synthetic population with 31,738,240 agents representing 90.67 percent of the overall population of Telangana, India. The effects of imposing and lifting lockdowns, nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the role of immunity were analyzed. The distribution of people in different health states was measured separately for each district of Telangana. The spread dramatically increased and reached a peak soon after the lockdowns were relaxed. It was evident that is the protection offered is higher when a higher proportion of the population is exposed to the interventions. ABMs help to analyze grassroots details compared to compartmental models. Risk estimates provide insights on the proportion of the population protected by the adoption of one or more of the control measures, which is of practical significance for policymaking.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJECE

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE, ISSN: 2088-8708, a SCOPUS indexed Journal, SNIP: 1.001; SJR: 0.296; CiteScore: 0.99; SJR & CiteScore Q2 on both of the Electrical & Electronics Engineering, and Computer Science) is the official publication of the Institute of ...