Indonesian Capital Market Review
Vol. 12, No. 1

Volatility Forecasts Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and Index Stock Volatility Sector with Estimated Time Series

Bahtiar, Muhammad Rifki (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jan 2020

Abstract

This study aims to explore the comparative ability of forecasting models and the time series volatility of capital markets in Indonesia using JCI daily index data and sectoral indices from January 2010 to December 2014. The use of ARCH-family ARCH model (1.1) and GARCH (1.1) used to capture symmetrical effects, while TGARCH (1.1), EGARCH (1.1), APGARCH (1.1) on asymmetric effects. The results show that JCI return has an asymmetrical effect and the closest forecasting model is EGARCH (1.1). Returns for AGRI, MINING, BASICIND, INFRA, FIN, TRADE indices also have asymmetrical effects but are modeled with TGARCH (1.1). Meanwhile, the MISCIND, CONSUMER, PROPERTY indexes have a symmetrical effect and are modeled with GARCH (1.1). These models can explain forecasting closest to the real as well as provide guidance investors in the Indonesia capital market as one of the emerging markets

Copyrights © 2020






Journal Info

Abbrev

publication:icmr

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The intent of the Editors of The Indonesian Capital Market Review is to discuss, to explore, and to disseminate the latest issues and developments in Empirical Financial Economics particularly those related to financial frictions in the Emerging Markets. The topics cover capital markets, financial ...