EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL
Vol. 5 No. 2 Desember 2022

Peramalan Harga Beras dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Fuzzy Time Series (Study Kasus : Harga Beras di Kota Mataram)

Sulpaiyah Sulpaiyah (Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram)
Syamsul Bahri (Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram)
Lisa Harsyiah (Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Dec 2022

Abstract

Rice has become the main staple food for almost the entire population of Indonesia. However, in Indonesia, the price of food commodities (rice) often fluctuates in price. Due to the rapid fluctuation of rice prices and the uncertainty in the future, it is necessary to forecast rice prices. This study aims to predict the price of rice in the city of Mataram using the Holt double exponential smoothing method and the Cheng fuzzy time series. The model's performance is based on Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators. Forecasting model based on Holt's double exponential smoothing method, the MSE value is 705967.4994 and the MAPE value is 7.91%. On the other hand, based on Cheng's fuzzy time series method, the performance of the forecasting model based on the MSE indicator is 627400.307 and based on the MAPE value of 7.39%. Based on these results, Cheng's fuzzy time series method is more accurate than Holt's double exponential smoothing method.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

eigen

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Eigen Mathematics Journal mempublikasikan artikel yang berkontribusi pada informasi baru atau pengetahuan baru terkait Matematika, Statistika, dan Aplikasinya. Selain itu, jurnal ini juga mempublikasikan artikel berbentuk survey dalam rangka memperkenalkan perkembangan terbaru dan memotivasi ...