Caraka Tani: Journal of Sustainable Agriculture
Vol 38, No 1 (2023): April

Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Maharashtra State of India Using Statistical Model and GIS Mapping

Anirup Sengupta (Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg)
Mohanasundari Thangavel (School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Feb 2023

Abstract

Cotton is a prominent cash crop cultivated for fiber, edible oil and oil cake. A global environmental issue, like climate change, alters weather parameters necessary for the healthy growth and development of cotton plants, affecting fiber quality and economic yield. The study aims to illustrate the evidence of climate change in Maharashtra and assess its impact on the production of cotton in this region. The study was conducted in the state of Maharashtra, India. Geographic information system (GIS)-based models were created based on the vector data (geopolitical boundaries of the state of Maharashtra and its districts) and the corresponding raster attributes (meteorological data) to examine the changes in the patterns of distribution of temperature, rainfall and severity of drought (Standardized Precipitation Index-SPI) over the study period (1990 to 2015). Further, a statistical multiple linear regression model was developed using district-wise data on yield and climatic parameters obtained from International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) to estimate the relationship between the dependent variable (yield of cotton) and the independent variables (annual rainfall and annual mean temperature). GIS modeling and mapping provide evidence of changes in the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature. Although the regression analysis seems weak, it is acceptable for natural systems because natural systems are complex and often highly variable, making it difficult to create a perfect model. The multiple linear regression model shows that such changes in climatic parameters have a significant negative impact on the economic yield of cotton.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

carakatani

Publisher

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

Description

Caraka Tani: Journal of Sustainable Agriculture publishes original articles, review articles, case studies and short communications on the fundamentals, applications and management of Sustainable Agriculture areas in collaboration with Indonesian Agrotechnology / Agroecotechnology Association ...