JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI
Vol. 20 No. 1 (2023): SEPTEMBER, 2023

Penerapan Metode Peramalan Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) pada Faktor-Faktor Penyebab Badai di Indonesia

Galuh Oktavia Siswono (Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember)
Yeni April Lina (, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember)
Verencia Pricila (Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember)



Article Info

Publish Date
06 Sep 2023

Abstract

Effective disaster mitigation strategies are paramount in the realm of risk management concerning natural calamities, with the primary objective of mitigating potential devastation. A pragmatic and impactful method involves predicting the contributory aspects of such disasters, encompassing variables such as torrential rainfall and formidable wind velocities that tropical cyclones bring. In this study, a comparative analysis of forecasting methodologies is undertaken, precisely the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) technique and the Holt Winter approach, both directed toward gauging the impact of tropical cyclones. This investigation focuses on two critical factors: the forecast of precipitation intensity and the estimation of maximum wind speed. The outcomes underscore the superior predictive capabilities of the LSTM method, unequivocally revealing its aptitude for predicting rainfall and wind speed. Impressively, the LSTM method yields remarkable precision levels of 97.433% for rainfall and an even higher accuracy of 99.018% for maximum wind speed forecasting. In essence, this study highlights LSTM's efficacy in disaster prediction with substantial accuracy.

Copyrights © 2023






Journal Info

Abbrev

jmsk

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Jurnal ini mempublikasikan paper-paper original hasil-hasil penelitian dibidang Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi ...