At the beginning of the JKN program's launch, the funding experienced a deficit due to low revenue collected and high utilization of healthcare. The JKN program is the Indonesian government's MHI/SHI scheme to cover healthcare expenses for all Indonesians. MHI and SHI schemes may differ from one country to another because of many factors, especially in health policy and health financing systems. There is a lack of studies that compare different schemes and sources of financing in the MHI/SHI system that would determine financial sustainability. This study is intended to identify the predictor of financial distress in the JKN program and used net operating cash flows as a dummy variable. A secondary analysis of six years of data from JKN program funding in the period of 2016–2021 shows the financial ratio representing liquidity, as well as the claim ratio, the collectability ratio, and account receivable turn-over (RTO), and a binary logistic regression model is employed in predicting financial distress. The data demonstrated the importance of the claim ratio and collectability ratio. The liquidity ratio and RTO, on the other hand, have little predictive value for financial distress. The regression model's outcome demonstrates that the model is appropriate to be used. This study fills a gap in prior literature on the MHI/SHI financing side by examining financial and operational variables to predict financial distress and control financing structures such as health spending to manage the claim ratio, optimizing collectability of contributions to prevent the contributions' arrears, and utilizing liquid assets effectively.
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