UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

Pemetaan Intensitas Gempa Bumi di Wilayah Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Model Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Spatio-Temporal

Hidayatul Fikra (Unknown)
Dina Fitria (Unknown)
Nonong Amalita (Unknown)
Tessy Octavia Mukhti (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2024

Abstract

The random spatial and temporal occurrence of earthquakes means that this are still being researched from a seismological and stochastic perspective. Point processes are examples of stochastic processes which explain seismic activity, one of them is Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. It lackness ignores the location or spatial component of. Consequently, the components of time, location, and magnitude will be taken into consideration when discussing the ETAS model in this study. The spatio-temporal model is the name given to this concept. Therefore, in this research,mapping of earthquake intensity will be carried out in the West Sumatra region using the spatio-temporal ETAS model stated in conditional intensity function with eight parameters. The data used are earthquake events in the West Sumatra region with a magnitude threshold of 4 SR and a depth of ≤ 70 km for the period January 2000 to January 2024. Parameter model estimated using the maximum likelihood method and solved using the Davidon Fletcher Powell algorithm. The result shows area of West Sumatra with high earthquake intensity is coastal area, namely West Pasaman, Padang, Mentawai Islands and the South Pesisir. This makes the area vulnerable to seismic disasters

Copyrights © 2024






Journal Info

Abbrev

ujsds

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its ...