Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Vol. 1 No. 1 (2024): Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (IdJAMS)

ARIMA Modeling for Monthly West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Forecasting

Eka, Hidayat Agus Sofian (Unknown)
Wiharja, Jason Marvel (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Aug 2024

Abstract

Crude oil is a non-renewable natural resource. It is one of the world's most important natural resources since it has many utilities. One of the best parameters for crude oil price is West Texas Intermediate (WTI). It is the main oil benchmark for North America sourced from the United States. It is important to predict WTI price since the price of crude oil will impact the price of other commodities, which also will impact human life. In this work, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach is used to predict WTI price for the next 12 months with the monthly data from April 1, 2019, to April 1, 2023, which was collected from investing.com. The results ARIMA (1,2,1) with the best model for forecasting WTI price with accuracy value from error measurements MSE is 38,129117536, MAPE is 6,8128441%, and RMSE is 6,174882619. This forecasting will be useful as a consideration for various stakeholders and the government.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jms

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Engineering Public Health

Description

The main aim of the Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (IdJAMS) is to publish refereed, well-written original research articles, and studies that describe the latest research and developments in the area of applied mathematics and statistics. This is a broad-based journal ...