BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application

FORECASTING RICE PRICES IN TRADITIONAL MARKETS IN BANYUMAS REGENCY USING FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN

Sari, Dian Kartika (Unknown)
Sa'adah, Aminatus (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
13 Jan 2025

Abstract

Indonesia is one of those countries where a majority of its population earns a living through agriculture. One of Indonesia's largest commodities is rice. Rice prices are a significant indicator in the economy, especially in agrarian areas like Banyumas Regency. Fluctuating rice prices can impact the economic livelihoods of both farmers and consumers in the region. The rapid fluctuations in rice prices and the uncertainty in the future necessitate the need for rice price forecasting. This study employs fuzzy time series to forecast rice prices. The fuzzy time series model used is the Chen model, and the accuracy of the predictions will be evaluated using the MAPE value. Based on the forecasting results using the fuzzy time series method with the Chen model, the predicted rice price for May 2024 is Rp 14,082. Furthermore, the accuracy level of the rice price forecasting using the fuzzy time series method with the Chen model shows highly accurate predictions, with an error based on the MAPE value of 0.957539%. The limitations of this study lie in the use of limited historical data and the assumption that price patterns will follow similar trends in the future. The contribution of this study is the application of the fuzzy time series method to rice commodities in Indonesia, which demonstrates high accuracy in conditions of high price fluctuation, thus providing valuable insights for policymakers and market participants in economic planning within the agricultural sector.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

barekeng

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Description

BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan is one of the scientific publication media, which publish the article related to the result of research or study in the field of Pure Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Focus and scope of BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, as follows: - Pure ...