Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik
Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik (FORMASI)

Peramalan Inflasi Kota Pontianak dengan Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Aulia, Alwa (Unknown)
Huda, Nur'ainul Miftahul (Unknown)
Rofatunnisa, Sifa (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
21 Feb 2025

Abstract

One measure of regional economic stability that is always interesting to discuss is inflation, as it has a major impact on economic growth, external balance, competitiveness, interest rates, and even income distribution. Inflation is a term that refers to a consistent rise in the prices of goods and services over a period of time. This rise in prices can lead to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. To solve this problem, it is necessary to make predictions to forecast the value of inflation in the future. This research uses the Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average method to forecast Pontianak City inflation from January 2025 to December 2025. The data used in this research comes from BPS Pontianak City. The best model is determined from the accuracy test with MAPE value. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, the ???????????????????????? (6,0,4)(2,1,1)6 model is the best model for forecasting inflation in Pontianak City with a MAPE value of 2.02%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jsa

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik (FORMASI) dikelola oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Provinsi Kalimantan Barat sebagai wadah publikasi artikel ilmiah pejabat fungsional statistisi, akademisi dan praktisi bidang kajian statistika dan terapannya. Untuk menjaga kualitas dari artikel yang dipublikasikan ...