Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Sosial dan Teknologi (SNISTEK)
Vol 5 (2023): SNISTEK

Penyusunan Portofolio Saham Lindung Nilai Berdasarkan Principal Component Analysis Pada Indeks LQ45 Indonesi

Ronald Wangdra (Universitas Putera Batam)
Syahril Effendi (Universitas Putera Batam)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Sep 2023

Abstract

Stock investment carries significant risks, making hedging strategies essential. Research on hedging in the Indonesian stock index is limited. This study aims to construct a hedging portfolio using a linear combination of principal components to create orthogonal components for stocks in the LQ45 index. A 5-year time series dataset from 2018 to 2022 is employed. Analysis reveals four principal components explaining 84% of the total data variance, with a Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) value of 90%. This indicates successful separation of stocks with different cumulative return patterns, return profiles, and risks. ANOVA statistical tests confirm significant differences between stock groups at a 95% confidence level. The portfolio built from these four components provides excellent hedging, as indicated by a high Sharpe Ratio. Even stocks with negative returns are offset by those with positive returns within the portfolio. Backtesting and forward testing demonstrate that this portfolio outperforms the combined stock index. This research reinforces that a PCA-based hedging approach with generated principal components can mitigate risk and enhance investment returns in volatile market conditions.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

prosiding

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences Other

Description

SNISTEK adalah sebuah acara akademik yang prestisius dan berkualitas, yang diadakan setiap tahun dengan tujuan untuk mendukung pertukaran pengetahuan, ide, dan temuan terbaru dalam bidang ilmu sosial dan teknologi. Seminar ini merupakan platform ideal bagi para ilmuwan, peneliti, praktisi, dan ...