SocioHumania: Journal of Social Humanities Studies
Vol 2 No 1 (2025): SocioHumania: Journal of Social Humanities Studies

Reciprocal Tariffs and the Fragility of Global Trade: Economic Impacts on Indonesia’s Palm Oil Sector

Anton Suryantoro (IPB University)
Heristina Fitri Rukmana (IPB University)
Ganjar Gumelar Panghegar (IPB University)
Rizal Sjarief Sjaiful Nazli (IPB University)



Article Info

Publish Date
16 Jun 2025

Abstract

The implementation of a 32% reciprocal import tariff by the United States in April 2025, targeting Indonesian palm oil, reflects an intensifying global trend of trade protectionism. As one of Indonesia’s top export commodities, palm oil was severely affected by the policy, revealing the structural fragility of the country’s export-dependent economy. The tariff led to immediate disruptions in trade flows, price competitiveness, and employment across the palm oil supply chain. This study aims to analyze the economic impact of the U.S. tariff policy on Indonesia’s palm oil industry and to examine the government’s policy responses in mitigating these effects. The research also seeks to identify strategic lessons for improving trade resilience in the face of unilateral trade measures. The study adopts a qualitative descriptive approach, integrating macroeconomic analysis and international trade theory. It uses secondary data from trade statistics, government reports, and international institutions, combined with conceptual frameworks including global value chain theory, comparative advantage, and trade policy response models. The findings indicate that the tariff caused a 22.5% decline in export value and a 24.9% drop in volume within the first quarter after implementation. Approximately 17,000 workers were affected, and investor confidence weakened due to disruptions in downstream value chains. In response, the Indonesian government launched a five-pillar strategy covering trade diplomacy, market diversification, regulatory reform, fiscal support, and digital service trade bargaining. These findings highlight the urgent need for structural transformation, value-added industrial development, and adaptive trade governance to strengthen Indonesia’s long-term economic resilience.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

SocioHumania

Publisher

Subject

Religion Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

Description

SocioHumania: Journal of Social Humanities Studies is a scholarly publication dedicated to unraveling the multifaceted realms of social sciences and humanities. Through its interdisciplinary lens, the journal explores diverse subjects such as sociology, anthropology, psychology, history, philosophy, ...