Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi
Volume 13 Issue 1 April 2025

Perbandingan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Additive dan Additive Parameter Damped untuk Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen

Wawo, Rohelio Yoel (Unknown)
Salaki, Deiby Tineke (Unknown)
Komalig, Hanny Andrea Huibert (Unknown)
Hatidja, Djoni (Unknown)
Paendong, Marline Sofiana (Unknown)
Manurung, Tohap (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Apr 2025

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to compare the TES Additive and TES Additive Parameter Damped methods to forecast the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Manado City. The data used are secondary data in the form of CPI from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sulawesi, covering the period from January 2020 to December 2023. The forecasting accuracy indicators used are Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of the analysis show that the TES Additive method has better performance in forecasting the CPI of Manado City compared to TES Additive Damped Parameter. This is because the MAPE value in the TES Additive method testing data is smaller, indicating a higher accuracy of the forecasting results. The CPI prediction for 2024 shows a stable upward trend every month. This increase is expected to be driven by economic activity that is starting to recover after the pandemic, increased public consumption, and seasonal inflation approaching religious holidays and the end of the year. The highest CPI value is predicted to reach 117.32 in December 2024.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Euler

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Mathematics

Description

Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi is a national journal intended as a communication forum for mathematicians and other scientists from many practitioners who use mathematics in the research. Euler disseminates new research results in all areas of mathematics and their ...