Science and Technology Indonesia
Vol. 10 No. 3 (2025): July

Carbon Price Prediction by Incorporating Fossil Fuel Prices Using Long Short-Term Memory with Temporal Pattern Attention (TPA-LSTM)

Mujiono, Edo Priyo Utomo Putro (Unknown)
Mukhlash, Imam (Unknown)
Pradana, Yan Aditya (Unknown)
Putri, Endah R.M. (Unknown)
Irawan, Mohammad Isa (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jun 2025

Abstract

Reliable carbon price prediction can help to stabilize the carbon market, minimize financial risks for investors, and encourage innovation in green industries. The forecasts have a crucial role in reaching advanced goals for reducing emissions, aiding the shift toward an economy with reduced carbon emissions, and lessening the adverse effects of climate change overall. This paper proposes applications of LSTM with Temporal Pattern Attention (TPA-LSTM) to predict carbon price fluctuations. The prediction of carbon price fluctuations not only draws on its own historical information but also from its main predictors, including fossil fuel prices from 2018 to 2023. The TPA-LSTM method is a combined method that uses the LSTM layer as the initial input of the model. Furthermore, the output generated by the LSTM layer serves as the input to the TPA layer, which is then used to predict the carbon price for the following day. The model is tested by predicting the test data and calculating the evaluation results. The experimental results indicate that TPA-LSTM has surpassed other models in accuracy by showing better performance based on MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE metrics.

Copyrights © 2025






Journal Info

Abbrev

JSTI

Publisher

Subject

Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics

Description

An international Peer-review journal in the field of science and technology published by The Indonesian Science and Technology Society. Science and Technology Indonesia is a member of Crossref with DOI prefix number: 10.26554/sti. Science and Technology Indonesia publishes quarterly (January, April, ...