Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies

Bidirectional relationships between inflation and key monetary indicators in Indonesia: Exploring short- and long-run dynamics

Amalia, Nur Azizah (Unknown)
Zahra, Siti Fatimah (Unknown)
Lestari, Fitra Dila (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Aug 2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the effect of money supply, rupiah exchange rate, and interest rate (BI Rate) on inflation, and vice versa, in Indonesia from 2016 to 2024, with a total of 100 observations. The method employed is a quantitative approach utilizing Vector Autoregression/Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM) analysis techniques to identify both short-term and long-term effects. The results of the study indicate that the money supply and inflation do not significantly influence each other in either the short or long term. The exchange rate has a negative and significant influence on inflation in the long term. In contrast, the interest rate shows a positive and significant influence on inflation only in the long term. The results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) analyses confirm that the exchange rate is the most effective variable in explaining variations in inflation. In contrast, the roles of money supply and interest rates are relatively low. These findings indicate the importance of exchange rate stabilization as the primary strategy in controlling inflation in Indonesia.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jerps

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies [2797-8141] is a scientific journal that contains the results of theoretical research and studies on economics issues. The focus of this journal article is Economics, Economic Entrepreneurship, and start-up, development economics, monetary and fiscal ...