Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika
Vol. 2 No. 4 (2025): August

Beyond Point Estimates: Bayesian Deep Nonparametric Regression with Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification

Iskander, Hasan Mohammed (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Aug 2025

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification is essential in regression tasks where predictions inform high-stakes decisions. We present a practical framework for Bayesian deep nonparametric regression that moves beyond point estimates to deliver calibrated predictive intervals and uncertainty decomposition. The approach employs a heteroscedastic Bayesian neural network trained via Monte Carlo Dropout, enabling the estimation of both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties without costly Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We evaluate the method on a synthetic heteroscedastic regression problem, demonstrating accurate predictive means, well-calibrated 90% prediction intervals, and computational efficiency on CPU-only hardware. The results highlight the method’s suitability for uncertainty-aware regression in resource-constrained settings, and all code is released for reproducibility.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ppm

Publisher

Subject

Education Mathematics Other

Description

Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika ISSN 3030-9263 is a scientific journal published by Indonesian Journal Publisher. This journal publishes four issues annually in the months of November, February, May, and August. This journal only accepts original scientific research works (not a review) that have not ...