JDE (Journal of Developing Economies)
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2024)

The Effect of Uncertainty on Inflation: Evidence in ASEAN

Andi Tiara Putri Marasanti (Master of Economics Science, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia)
Kiki Verico (Master of Economics Science, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
04 Jun 2024

Abstract

A number studies have been conducted to establish the relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables, such as inflation. Subsequently, economists constructed a time-varying uncertainty index, which is referred to as the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). This study aims to identify the effect of time-varying uncertainty subject to inflation in ASEAN. Using yearly dataset of the WUI as a proxy for the global level of domestic uncertainty, inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and exchange rate from 2015 to 2019 for all ASEAN Member States (AMS), a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) was employed to estimate the dynamic relationship and the short- and long-run effect of the socioeconomic uncertainty proxies with respect to inflation in ASEAN. The results indicated that uncertainty had positively and significantly affect inflation in the short-run estimation, along with GDP. Meanwhile, in the long-run estimation, it was only GDP that affected inflation, rather than uncertainty. Keywords: ASEAN, Economic Uncertainty, Inflation JEL: D81; E31; P25

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JDE

Publisher

Subject

Description

The Journal of Developing Economies (JDE) is a journal published by the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Airlangga University with the ISSN 2541-1012 (print version) and 2528-2018 (online version). This journal is published every 6 months, June and December, through a ...