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JDE (Journal of Developing Economies)

JDE
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Published by Universitas Airlangga

ISSN : 25411012 EISSN : 25282018 DOI : -

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The Journal of Developing Economies (JDE) is a journal published by the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Airlangga University with the ISSN 2541-1012 (print version) and 2528-2018 (online version). This journal is published every 6 months, June and December, through a review process from both internal (Airlangga University) and external reviewers.

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Articles 166 Documents

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Empirical Study of Twin Deficits in Indonesia: The Relationship Between Causality and Early Warning System of Twin Deficits' Cause Kuncahyo, Prawudya Dery
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 1 No. 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

The aim of this research is to investigate the causality of deficit budget with the current account deficit (twin deficits) in Indonesia and to detect the decision indicators of twin deficit as an early warning system model of twin deficits' occurrence. The research applied a quantitative approach with granger causative data to find the significant relationship of twin deficits in Indonesia. At the early stage, it analyzes the detection of twin deficits by using quantitative phenomenological approach in a form of mathematic formula calculation via non-parametric model with EWS signal extraction. It used 1 derivation standard (DS) and 24 months signal windows to extract signal. Signal extraction is applied to monitor the evolution of economic indicators which has a systematic tendency of twin deficits in Indonesia. Microsoft Office Excel 2007 and E. Views 7 are the software used within this research. The result of this research signified that there is a relationship between twin deficits in Indonesia with the budget deficit which is influencing the current account deficit. It strengthens the Twin Deficits Hypothesis (TDH) that explains the existence of budget deficit will affect the current account deficit by access of interest rate. Additionally, the result of a signal extraction calculation from the chosen indicator variable trend showed a positive signal of twin deficits. It is justified by the abnormal behavior of variables which states up to 50 percent probability. Those variables are export growth, import growth, terms of trade, inflation, growing industrial sector, real exchange rate, foreign reserve growth, and growth of world oil price. Keywords: Budget deficit, Current Account Deficit, Early Warning System.JEL: F32, F41

Village Government Corruption in Decentralized Indonesia: Democracy, Ethnic Diversity, and Budget Authority batubara, rumayya
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 1 No. 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

The village (desa) is the lowest level of government administration in Indonesia. In the pre-decentralization, although by law a village should held a regular election to select their leader, in practice the election is highly influenced and intervened by higher level of government. The new decentralization law has provided rural village governance with free election of village head and autonomy to design and decide budget and regulation without approval from the district government. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of corruption in village government of Indonesia in the more decentralized system of government introduced in 2001, focusing on the interrelationship between democracy and ethnic fractionalization at village level. Applying a Probit model to the IFLS (Indonesian Family Life Survey) data set on the perception of corruption incidence and the changes in governance at village government in 256 communities, this paper finds that an ethnic diversity at village level is positively associated with corruption if democracy is practiced before the decentralization, and, in contrast, is negatively associated with corruption if the democracy is newly adopted following the decentralization reform. These results are robust, with and without inclusion of budget autonomy, which found to have positive association with corruption. Keywords: Corruption, Decentralization, Democracy, Ethnic Diversity, Budget AuthorityJEL : D73, H11, Z10

Linkages, Potential, and Spatial Efficiency of Paddy Production in East Java Nugroho, Ris Yuwono Yudo
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 1 No. 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

East Java has a big role in supplying agricultural product for nasional logistic. The problems are not completely resolved, regional development planning should integrate sectoral and spatial approach. The focus of study is to analyze the linkage of rice production to other sectors, in order to develop rice production. Research using the Input-Output models, Location Quotient to measure the degree of relative specialization of a region, and DEA to measure the performance of spatial efficiency. The result used IO table in 2010, contributors backward linkage of paddy sector are paddy sector itself, fertilizer and pesticide sector, also agriculture services and hunting, while the backward linkage contributors are paddy sector itself, rice sector, and food products and beverages. Spatially there are 28 areas that are able to serve the market of paddy products. If related to production efficiency, there are nine areas are included in the category of efficient production, with input in the form of land, and the number of farmers. Policy Implication related to the findings of input output approach, are the affordability of input proces, the streamlined of input distributing system, and the goes on education and information to the farmer about input usage. Whereas, related to the spatial aspect, in soft infrastructure as strengthening internal capacity of farmer and instructor. In the other hand, hard structure aspect especially restoration of irrigation, allocating best seed and fertilizer for farmer.

Evaluating the Changing Comparative Advantage Patterns and Export Specialization of East Java province (Indonesia) Padilla, Miguel angel esquivias
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 1 No. 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

East Java (JATIM), the second largest province in Indonesia in terms of population and GDP contribution had experienced 50 percent of export growth from 2007 to 2013. The changes were not only in value but in composition and destination, meaning that a change in the pattern of exports of JATIM and export performance was observed in the seven years of analysis. This study looks at those changes from the point of view of comparative advantage and export specialization. JATIM kept 55 percent of their competitive industries since 2007 as the backbone of their exports, losing the other 45 percent, while allowing the creation of new industries. The gains in new industries are higher than the losses indicating that relocation of resources and the change of focus is bringing benefits to the province. Dynamic changes had occurred among commodities –gains and losses in comparative advantage and export specialization-, some presumed to be driven by commodity prices while others are more related to global integration.

The Political Economy of Coalition in Indonesia Sanjaya, Muhammad Ryan
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 1 No. 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Politics as an art of bargaining has gain prominent momentum following the victory of the president-elect Joko Widodo in Indonesia in 2014. This paper estimates the value of political parties under uncertainties over two possible coalitions: the Great Indonesia Coalition (Koalisi Indonesia Hebat, KIH) that supports Joko Widodo, and the Red & White Coalition (Koalisi Merah Putih, KMP) that supports Prabowo Subianto, the president candidate from the Gerindra Party. The estimation shows that the Golkar, the second largest earner of seats in the parliament, is more valuable for KMP, making them expensive to be maintained within this coalition. It suggests that the best choice for Golkar is to jump to KIH, unless the KMP provides substantial payoff to lure this party. Nonetheless, the pure strategy Nash equilibrium in a non-cooperative game of political bargaining shows that even though a party has small fair values, but it still has decisive impact in the bargaining table of a coalition.

Impact Export Diversification on Exchange Rate Regime Choice Mayangsari, Eka Putri; Handoyo, Rosanto Dwi
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 2 No. 2 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

The choice of exchange rate regime is the most relevant decision in the economic world that must be faced by the economic authority until now. Exchange rate regime that is applied by one country become a controversial debate after the Asia's crisis in the year 1997-1998, especially for developing countries and emerging economies in Asia. The purpose of this research is to see the impact of export diversification, intensive margin and extensive margin to the choice of the exchange rate regime in nine emerging and developing countries in Asia 1991-2014. This research uses the panel logistic regression model to analyze the two model that are used in the research; they are: model 1 (the impact of export diversification to the exchange rate regime),and model 2 (the impact of extensive margin and intensive margin to the exchange rate regime. To avoid and to lessen the chances of endogeneity problem therefore, all the independent variables and the control variable must be lagged in one period. The results of the regression show that export diversification have a significant positive impact on the exchange rate regime. When export diversification is decomposed into intensive margin and extensive margins, the result shows that the extensive margins also have a significant positive impact towards the exchange rate regime, while the intensive margin does not show any significant impact towards the exchange rate regime choice. Keywords: Exchange Rate Regime, Export Diversification, Intensive Margin, Extensive Margin, Emerging and Developing Countries in Asia.JEL: F31, L25, O53

The Impact of Innovation and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Its Interaction to Export Value of High-Technology Products of Asian-10 Ilmi, Nadia
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 2 No. 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

High-technology product is highly depend on science and technology innovation that leads to renewal or improvement of products and services. Foreign direct investment has spillover effects in the form of transfer of foreign technology, managerial capabilities, and improved international competitiveness for domestic companies. The objectives of the study is to analyze the impact of innovation and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the export of high-technology products Asian-10 countries. This study utilize the gravity model framework and panel dataset from 10 countries in Asian and 29 trading partners country with the period from 2006 to 2013. The results show that innovation of exporter countries, FDI of exporter and importer countries, as well as the interaction between FDI and innovation of exporter countries have a positive and significant impact, and the interaction between FDI and innovation of importer countries have a negative and significant impact on exports of high-technology Asian-10. In this study also found that the innovation of importer countries do not have a significant impact on the export of high-technology products Asian-10 countries from 2006 to 2013. Keywords: Innovation, Foreign Direct Investment, Gravity Model, Export JEL: F1, F2

Asset Price Shock Response to Shock Capital Flow, Exchange Rate, and Interest Rate: Case Study of 16 Emerging Market Countries guswardi, rachman
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 1 No. 2 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Capital flows to developing countries and emerging markets in the world is constantly increasing. However, the crisis that occurred in 2008 and 2011 caused concern for investors. A series of policies have been carried out in several emerging market countries to take steps prudence in controlling capital flows. This study aimed to analyze the response of asset prices to the shock caused by capital inflows, interest rates and exchange rates and analyzes the contribution of shock in capital inflows, interest rates and exchange rates on asset prices in 16 emerging market countries (India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Republic of South Africa, Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Colombia, Philippines, Egypt, Hong Kong, Peru, Czech, Bangladesh, Hungary) in the year 2001-2015. The method used is quantitative method using Panel Vector Auto Regression models. The results of this study show that the first shock of positive capital inflows will affect asset prices, both that a positive shock on interest rates will affect asset prices, the third that the positive shock of the exchange rate would affect asset prices. The variables that have the biggest contribution in influencing asset prices is the exchange rate which further interest rates and the smallest is the capital inflows Keywords: Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Asset Prices, Emerging Market, Panel Vector Auto Regression.JEL: G12

Peer-to-Peer Lending in Surabaya: How It Drives Regional Economy? Mahardhika, Galih Satria; Inggis, Raka Achmad
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 2 No. 2 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Financial technology, or so called as "Fintech”, has been remarked as a disruptive idea that changed our current financial system. In Indonesia, one of the emerging financial practices related to Fintech is the online-based peer-to-peer lending (P2PL). This research has two objectives: to explore current scheme of P2PL in Surabaya and to learn how P2PL drives the economy of Surabaya. To meet the objectives, numbers of existing papers are being reviewed related to the matter of P2PL and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Primary data is also gathered through in-depth interview from two basic stakeholders of P2PL in Surabaya: the provider of fintech apps and the owner of MSMEs who is benefiting from the fintech apps. The fintech provider is interviewed regarding to the channeling scheme of funds from the lenders to the MSMEs, while the MSME is interviewed related to the escalation of their business after receiving funds from the P2PL provider. By exploring this topic, the scheme of P2PL and the importance of P2PL to drive regional economy are being clearly described. The results indicate that the funding from P2PL providers help the MSMEs to boost their business performance, and the boosted MSMEs are affecting the regional economy. Keywords: Fintech, Peer-To-Peer Lending, MSMEs, Lending Scheme.JEL: F65, O14, P42

Property Price Bubble: Regional Analysis in Indonesia Kurniawan, Indra; Purwono, Rudi
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 2 No. 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

The aim of this study is to look at the influence of fundamental factors of demand and supply side of the property prices in five major cities in Indonesia using data panel regression methods. In addition, this study analyzes the regional property and the price bubble in Indonesia using the Hodrick Prescott filter analysis. The results of the panel data regression method Showed that the demand-side fundamentals such as economic growth and inflation have a positive effect on property prices as well as interest rate, while the loan to value(LTV) Negatively Affect the price of the property. On the other hand, the fundamental factors of supply-side variable, that is developer's price expectations impact positively the price of the property. HP filter analysis identifying the bubble in every city that lasted for two periods during the study. Keywords: Property Price, Property Price Bubble, Fundamental Factors, Hp Filter JEL: D23, R21, R31

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