<![CDATA[This study develops a deterministic mathematical model integrated with system dynamics to measure key success factors driving e-government maturity in Indonesia’s education sector. Addressing the gap in previous research, which mainly relied on descriptive methods, the model quantitatively examines causal relationships among leadership commitment, budget support, digital infrastructure, human capital, service quality, and feedback mechanisms. The methodology involves three stages: (1) constructing a causal loop diagram based on theoretical and empirical insights, (2) converting these relationships into a linear system of equations normalized on a [0–1] scale, and (3) performing simulations and sensitivity analyses to evaluate policy scenarios. Simulation results indicate that even relatively high leadership commitment (K=0.75) only produces moderate maturity levels (M≈0.409). The greatest improvement occurs when feedback loops are reinforced and service quality investments are prioritized. Sensitivity analysis reveals the model is particularly responsive to changes in feedback effectiveness and service quality weighting, identifying these as critical leverage points for accelerating transformation. Under optimal conditions, maturity can increase from 0.41 to 0.48, reflecting a 7% gain over the baseline. The study contributes a replicable quantitative framework for evidence-based policymaking, while noting limitations in parameter assumptions and empirical calibration for future refinement.]]>
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