Modeling E-Payment Adoption and its Impact on MSME Financial Inclusion in North Kolaka

Bohari, Nurul Aulia (Actuarial Science Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Kolaka Utara, Lasusua, Indonesia)
Firdaus, Firdaus (Actuarial Science Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Kolaka Utara, Lasusua, Indonesia)
Puspita, Ulva Mega (Actuarial Science Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Kolaka Utara, Lasusua, Indonesia)

Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan
Vol 9, No 2 (2025): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a crucial role in Indonesia’s economic development; however, the adoption of e-payment systems in North Kolaka Regency remains relatively low. This study aims to model and analyze the adoption dynamics of e-payment among MSMEs using an SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered) framework. Based on survey data from 485 MSMEs, simulations were conducted using Python to determine the spread and sustainability of adoption behavior. The results reveal that a majority of MSMEs are still unfamiliar with e-payment systems, while the proportion of active users remains limited. The numerical simulation yields a basic reproduction number of R₀ = 0.4939, indicating that e-payment adoption has not yet reached a sustainable level. To enhance the growth of e-payment usage and strengthen financial inclusion, policy strategies should focus on improving digital financial literacy, providing continuous incentives, and integrating MSMEs into broader go-digital programs.