Indonesian Journal of Cultural and Community Development
Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025): June

Decision Tree Analysis for Predicting Voter Participation Using IDM Data: Analisis Pohon Keputusan untuk Memprediksi Partisipasi Pemilih Menggunakan Data IDM

Yuwanto, Mahmud Adi (Unknown)
Fitrani, Arif Senja (Unknown)
Dijaya, Rohman (Unknown)
Indahyanti, Uce (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
20 Jun 2025

Abstract

General Background: Voter participation serves as a core indicator of democratic quality and civic awareness. Specific Background: In East Java’s Mataraman region, significant disparities in electoral participation highlight socioeconomic influences measurable through the Village Development Index (IDM). Knowledge Gap: No prior research integrates IDM-based indicators with machine learning methods for voter behavior prediction. Aims: This study develops a classification model using C4.5, Naïve Bayes, and SVM algorithms to predict voter participation based on IDM attributes. Results: The Decision Tree C4.5 algorithm achieved the highest accuracy (80.87%) and F1-score (0.88) compared to Naïve Bayes and SVM, identifying education and healthcare access as primary determinants of high participation. Novelty: The integration of IDM and C4.5 classification introduces a novel framework for data-driven political participation analysis. Implications: The model can assist policymakers and electoral bodies in targeting civic engagement initiatives within underrepresented regions. Highlights: C4.5 algorithm effectively predicts voter engagement. Education and health access influence participation. Data-driven policy enhances democratic quality.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijccd

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media

Description

Indonesian Journal of Cultural and Community Development (IJCCD) is a peer-reviewed journal published by Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo three times a year (March, June, September). This journal provides immediate open access to its content on the principle that making research freely available to ...