JRSI (Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem dan Industri)
Vol 11 No 01 (2024): Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri

Forecasting Analysis of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Demand using Single Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average and Holt Winter’s Methods at the Palm Oil Plantation Company

Catherine Intanadya Ilhamti (Unknown)
Resista Vikaliana (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Oct 2024

Abstract

PT Steelindo Wahana Perkasa, a part of the KLK GROUP, is a palm oil plantation company located inEast Belitung. They produce olein and stearin through a refinery plant with a capacity of 1000 MT ofCrude Palm Oil (CPO) per day. These products are exported to Asia and Europe, including countries likeMalaysia, Singapore, China, and the Netherlands. Olein is also sold in the Belitung region. Currently, thecompany only produces around 170 MT of CPO per day, so they purchase CPO from other companies.Research is conducted to analyze the future demand for CPO using the Single Exponential Smoothing,Moving Average, and Holt Winter's methods. The research's goal is to determine the most accurate methodbased on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. If MAPE is <10%, the method is consideredsuitable for forecasting CPO demand. The research results indicate that the most appropriate method isHolt Winter's, with a MAPE of 8.6% and 4.4%. In period 13, company A will purchase 2,780.08 MT ofCPO, and company B will purchase 4,496.10 MT.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JRSI

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

Description

JRSI (Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem dan Industri) merupakan jurnal ilmiah yang bersifat peer-reviewed dan open access yang dikelola oleh Fakultas Rekayasa Industri, Telkom University. JRSI berisi artikel ilmiah yang diangkat dari hasil penelitian, gagasan konseptual, aplikasi teori, serta kajian analitis ...