Forecasting Performance of Double Exponential Smoothing Model and ETS Model for Predicting Crude Oil Prices

Prapcoyo, Hari
As'ad, Mohamad
Sujito, Sujito
Setyowibowo, Sigit
Farida, Eni

Telematika : Jurnal Informatika dan Teknologi Informasi
Vol 20 No 2 (2023): Edisi Juni 2023

Purpose: This study aims to predict the price of monthly crude oil quickly and accurately by using an easy model and with easily available software.Design/methodology/approach: This study compares the DES-Holts and ETS models to predict price of monthly crude oil.Findings/result: The results of this study recommend the ETS(M,N,N) model to predict the price of monthly crude oil which produces an accuracy value of RMSE and MAPE of 4.385812 and 6.499007 %, respectively.Originality/value/state of the art: This study implements the DES_Holt's and ETS models to predict price of monthly crude oil with an RMSE and MAPE forecasting accuracy that has never been done in previous studies.