International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS)
Vol 16, No 4: December 2025

Predictions of solar power using ensemble machine learning techniques

Vinayagam, Arangarajan (Unknown)
Mohandas, R. (Unknown)
Jeyabharath, R. (Unknown)
Mohan, B. S. (Unknown)
Lakshmanan, Srinivasan (Unknown)
Bharatiraja, C. (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Dec 2025

Abstract

Predicting solar power production accurately is becoming more and more crucial for efficient power management and the grid's integration of renewable energy sources. Using data from an Australian photovoltaic (PV) power station, this study employs a variety of machine learning (ML) ensemble techniques, such as gradient boosting (GB), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), to forecast solar power production. ML models are developed utilizing pertinent information from electricity and meteorological data in order to forecast solar power. The predictive performance of trained ML models is verified in terms of metrics like mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (R2). With higher R2 values and lower error results (MAE and RMSE), XGBoost performs better than GB and RF. Optimizing the hyperparameters of the XGBoost model significantly improves its performance. The tweaked XGBoost model shows a significant improvement in R2 (more than 5% to 10%) and error results (reduced MAE and RMSE by 0.01 to 0.06), when compared to other ensemble approaches. Compared to other ensemble approaches, the tuned XGBoost methodology is more robust and generates more accurate forecasts in solar power.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJPEDS

Publisher

Subject

Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS, ISSN: 2088-8694, a SCOPUS indexed Journal) is the official publication of the Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science (IAES). The scope of the journal includes all issues in the field of Power Electronics and drive systems. ...