CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI

Sensitivity of Bayesian Truncated Spline Regression to Prior and Knot Configuration in Stunting Models

Zahra, Septi Nafisa Ulluya (Unknown)
Fernandes, Adji Ahmad Rinaldo (Unknown)
Efendi, Achmad (Unknown)
Solimun, Solimun (Unknown)
Nasywa, Alfiyah Hanun (Unknown)
Junianto, Fachira Haneinanda (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Nov 2025

Abstract

This study develops a Bayesian bi-response regression model using a truncated spline approach to examine nonlinear effects of economic, dietary, and environmental factors on nutritional and physical stunting. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of prior types and knot numbers on model performance using Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and bias. Results show that the informative Normal–Gamma prior combination yields the best performance, with the lowest DIC, smallest RMSE, and minimal bias. Models with three knots provide higher predictive accuracy, while noninformative Uniform priors cause instability and overfitting. Overall, the findings indicate that prior specification has a stronger effect on model robustness than the number of knots, emphasizing the importance of informative priors in Bayesian spline modeling for understanding complex, nonlinear determinants of child stunting.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Math

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Jurnal CAUCHY secara berkala terbit dua (2) kali dalam setahun. Redaksi menerima tulisan ilmiah hasil penelitian, kajian kepustakaan, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan di bidang Matematika (Aljabar, Analisis, Statistika, Komputasi, dan Terapan). Naskah yang diterima akan dikilas (review) oleh ...