Fernandes, Adji Ahmad Rinaldo
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Sensitivity of Bayesian Truncated Spline Regression to Prior and Knot Configuration in Stunting Models Zahra, Septi Nafisa Ulluya; Fernandes, Adji Ahmad Rinaldo; Efendi, Achmad; Solimun, Solimun; Nasywa, Alfiyah Hanun; Junianto, Fachira Haneinanda
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.37381

Abstract

This study develops a Bayesian bi-response regression model using a truncated spline approach to examine nonlinear effects of economic, dietary, and environmental factors on nutritional and physical stunting. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of prior types and knot numbers on model performance using Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and bias. Results show that the informative Normal–Gamma prior combination yields the best performance, with the lowest DIC, smallest RMSE, and minimal bias. Models with three knots provide higher predictive accuracy, while noninformative Uniform priors cause instability and overfitting. Overall, the findings indicate that prior specification has a stronger effect on model robustness than the number of knots, emphasizing the importance of informative priors in Bayesian spline modeling for understanding complex, nonlinear determinants of child stunting.
Bayesian Nonparametric Truncated Spline Regression for Modeling Nutritional and Physical Stunting Zahra, Septi Nafisa Ulluya; Fernandes, Adji Ahmad Rinaldo; Efendi, Achmad; Nasywa, Alfiyah Hanun; Junianto, Fachira Haneinanda
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 9, No 2 (2025): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v9i2.26759

Abstract

Stunting is a problem that is affected by the socioeconomic and environmental conditions of the public. The present study evaluates the impact of the financial state, environmental quality, and child feeding practices on the nutritional and physical stunting using a Bayesian nonparametric truncated spline regression model. To do this, a single knot spline structure was used a capture non-linear affects and thresholds, posterior estimation being conductied with Gibb's sampling. The results exhibit that all of the three predictors have a significance after the knot point on the right arrives, indiacting to saturation affects. As for the economic standing and the environmental quality, their effect is consistent, while feeding practices hold a more considerable impact on the nutritional stunting. From model diagnostics, the model had a good fit and predictive accuracy. The results highlight the importance of feeding practices and economic improvement and environmental sanitation, and display the benefits of the Bayesian spline technique for handling complex data.