<![CDATA[This study aims to forecast the sales performance of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in the Mandalika Special Economic Zone (SEZ) by integrating tourism dynamics into the analysis. Employing the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Factors (SARIMAX) model, external variables such as the COVID-19 pandemic, MotoGP policies, and tourist arrivals were included to enhance predictive accuracy. The analysis covered four major MSME sectors: HoReCa, Fashion & Crafts, Transport & Services, and Agro-based Products. The results demonstrate that the HoReCa and Fashion & Crafts sectors are the most responsive to increases in tourist arrivals, while the Transport & Services and Agro-based Products sectors exhibit more stable growth patterns. These findings contribute to the theoretical advancement of micro-level forecasting in the MSME context and highlight the strategic role of tourism dynamics in shaping entrepreneurial performance. From a practical perspective, the study provides evidence-based recommendations for policymakers to design tourism-driven MSME development strategies in Mandalika SEZ. The novelty of this research lies in its application of SARIMAX forecasting to tourism-related MSME performance, integrating crisis events and international sports policies into the model, thus offering a robust framework for anticipating business fluctuations in tourism-dependent regions.]]>
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