BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application

LSTM AND GRU IN RICE PREDICTION FOR FOOD SECURITY IN INDONESIA

Hendrawati, Triyani (Unknown)
Marthendra, Kennedy (Unknown)
Simanjuntak, Brian Riski Jayama (Unknown)
Pravitasari, Anindya Aprilianti (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
24 Nov 2025

Abstract

Hunger in Indonesia remains a serious challenge, especially in the face of food price instability, particularly rice as the main staple food. In order to achieve SDG 2 “Zero Hunger” by 2030, policies that support price stability and more effective food distribution are needed. This study aims to assess the predictive power of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models for Indonesian rice prices. The dataset, consisting of 1,424 observations from early 2021 to late 2024, was collected from official sources and preprocessed using normalization techniques. The data was then divided into training, validation, and testing sets. Each model was trained and evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metrics. LSTM, a type of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), uses three gates and cell memory to identify long-term patterns in time series data. GRU, with a simpler structure involving only two gates, is more efficient in modeling temporal relationships. The results show that the LSTM model achieved MAPE 3.49%, while the GRU model outperformed it with MAPE 1.08%. Overall, the GRU model demonstrated higher accuracy in forecasting rice prices.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

barekeng

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Description

BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan is one of the scientific publication media, which publish the article related to the result of research or study in the field of Pure Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Focus and scope of BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, as follows: - Pure ...