BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application

ENHANCING LQ45 STOCK PRICE FORECASTING USING LSTM MODEL

Sinaga, Marlina Setia (Unknown)
Iskandar, Said (Unknown)
Manullang, Sudianto (Unknown)
Arnita, Arnita (Unknown)
Marpaung, Faridawaty (Unknown)
Buulolo, Fatizanolo (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
24 Nov 2025

Abstract

Stocks listed in the LQ45 index represent companies with high liquidity, large market capitalization, and strong fundamentals, making them pivotal to the movements of the Indonesian capital market. This study selects eight LQ45-listed stocks from the energy and mining sectors, as well as the banking sector. Historical data spanning a 10-year period from February 28, 2015, to February 28, 2025. This research aims to mitigate the impact of stock market dynamics, a significant challenge for investor decision-making. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method was employed to forecast stock prices using four variables: opening, highest, lowest, and closing prices. The LSTM architecture was chosen because its gated memory cells can effectively capture long‑term dependencies and nonlinear patterns in financial time series, thereby aligning with the research objective of minimizing forecasting error under volatile market conditions. Evaluation results using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) showed prediction errors below 2.5%, indicating relatively low forecasting error. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values varied depending on stock price volatility. Companies exhibiting higher stock prices, such as Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), demonstrate larger RMSE values. For opening prices, predictive accuracy was notably strong, with MAPE values consistently below 1.26%. This suggests that opening prices, influenced by pre-market sentiment and historical data, are more stable and easier to predict compared to other price variables.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

barekeng

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Description

BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan is one of the scientific publication media, which publish the article related to the result of research or study in the field of Pure Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Focus and scope of BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, as follows: - Pure ...