Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas
Vol 48 No 4 (2025)

Comparative Analysis of Capacitance-Resistance Models and Machine Learning for Co₂-Eor Production Forecasting: A Case Study of Dynamic Connectivity in Heterogeneous Reservoir

Reyhan Rafsanjani (Universitas Islam Riau)
Agus Dahlia (Universitas Islam Riau)
Fajril Ambia (Universitas Islam Riau)
Novia Rita (Universitas Islam Riau)
Ayyi Husbani (Universitas Islam Riau)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Dec 2025

Abstract

This study evaluates an integrated forecasting framework that combines Capacitance-Resistance Models (CRMP and CRMIP) with ensemble machine learning algorithms (Random Forest and XGBoost) to predict CO₂-Enhanced Oil Recovery performance in the heterogeneous Volve Field. Reservoir simulation was performed using tNavigator with CO₂ injection at 941 tons/day (35 MMSCF/day) over 20 years. The results demonstrate the critical influence of CO₂-specific characteristics, with a determined Minimum Miscibility Pressure of 3299.68 psi and a corresponding oil Swelling Factor of 1.19. Machine learning models, particularly XGBoost, significantly outperformed conventional CRM methods, achieving exceptional accuracy (R² = 0.99-1.00, MAPE = 0.44-2.24%) compared to CRMP/CRMIP (R² = 0.55-0.72, MAPE = 16-23%). The CO₂ injection scenario substantially enhanced oil recovery, achieving a cumulative production of 15.73 MMSTB (RF 20.45%) compared to 9.38 MMSTB (RF 12.19%) for waterflooding, representing a 67.7% improvement and incremental recovery of 6.35 MMSTB. Interwell connectivity analysis revealed dynamic reservoir responses with time constants ranging from 916 to 927 days. The integration of physics-based models with non-linear machine learning algorithms significantly improves prediction accuracy while providing comprehensive insights into reservoir dynamics, allowing for optimal CCUS implementation in heterogeneous reservoir systems.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

SCOG

Publisher

Subject

Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Energy

Description

The Scientific Contributions for Oil and Gas is the official journal of the Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS for the dissemination of information on research activities, technology engineering development and laboratory testing in the oil and gas field. Manuscripts in English are accepted from ...