Application of Monte Carlo Simulation and PERT/CPM Techniques in the Construction Project Planning of PLTMG Ambon-2

Ibrahim, Wahyu Sugar

Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia
Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia

Construction project scheduling and monitoring pose significant challenges in today’s dynamic business environment. This study investigates the implementation of two widely used project management techniques - the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) - in combination with Monte Carlo simulation for risk-based planning. The case study focuses on the PLTMG (Gas Engine Power Plant) Ambon-2 project. CPM provides a deterministic schedule with an estimated completion time of 65 weeks, representing an optimistic scenario. In contrast, the Monte Carlo simulation incorporates uncertainty and risk factors, indicating a 56.98% probability of project completion within 76 weeks and a 43.02% risk of delay. The results demonstrate the limitations of deterministic methods in high-risk environments and highlight the advantages of probabilistic simulations for more realistic project forecasting.