Indonesian Actuarial Journal
Vol. 1 No. 2 (2025): Indonesian Actuarial Journal

Precision-Oriented Churn Prediction with a Fine-Tuned Meta-Learner Stack Model and SHAP: A Case Study on IBM Telco

Ghaza Antani, Tajmahal (Unknown)
Hakim, Adhan Haidar (Unknown)
Nurrizky, Rayna (Unknown)
Annelia Einstania Vyorra, Venny (Unknown)
Septyanto, Fendy (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Dec 2025

Abstract

Customer churn prediction is essential in the telecommunications industry, where maintaining existing customers is significantly more cost-effective than acquiring new ones. This study introduces a precision-oriented stacked ensemble model to predict churn using the IBM Telco Customer Churn dataset. Emphasis is placed on maximizing precision to reduce false positives, thereby minimizing unnecessary and costly intervention efforts. The proposed architecture employs LightGBM, CatBoost, and Logistic Regression as base learners, with a fine-tuned ElasticNet serving as the meta-learner. Evaluation results show that the stacking model achieves strong overall performance, attaining an AUC of 0.917 and the highest precision among all models tested. To ensure interpretability, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are applied to identify key drivers of churn such as number of referrals, contract type, monthly charges, and tenure. These findings demonstrate that a precision-focused approach can balance business efficiency and predictive power, offering a robust framework for proactive and cost-sensitive churn management.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

iaj

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Physics

Description

The Indonesian Actuarial Journal (IAJ) is an international peer-reviewed electronic journal published by the Society of Actuaries of Indonesia (Persatuan Aktuaris Indonesia). The journal is published twice a year and may also feature special issues addressing specific themes of interest in actuarial ...