<![CDATA[Abstrak. Pulau Kalimantan merupakan wilayah dengan tingkat kejadian kebakaran hutan dan lahan (karhutla) yang tinggi, terutama pada kawasan bergambut yang luas. Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1) Mengidentifikasi distribusi spasial dan frekuensi temporal hotspot Pulau Kalimantan khususnya pada lahan gambut dan non-gambut, (2) Menganalisis variasi spasial dan temporal bulanan dari curah hujan, suhu udara, serta kelembapan tanah di lahan gambut dan non-gambut, (3) Menganalisis variabel yang paling berpengaruh terhadap jumlah hotspot di lahan gambut dan non-gambut. Data hotspot diperoleh dari citra MODIS beresolusi 1 km, sedangkan data curah hujan dan temperatur udara 2 m berasal dari ERA5 (resolusi 0,25°), dan data kelembapan tanah diambil dari SMAP L4 Global 9-km Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture. Analisis regresi binomial negatif digunakan untuk menilai pengaruh faktor meteorologis terhadap intensitas hotspot. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hotspot lebih terkonsentrasi pada lahan gambut (6.184 titik) dibandingkan non-gambut (4.848 titik). Kelembapan tanah terbukti sebagai faktor paling signifikan yang memengaruhi peningkatan jumlah hotspot, diikuti oleh curah hujan. Sebagian besar hotspot terjadi pada wilayah dengan curah hujan <100 mm/bulan, suhu >25°C, dan kelembapan tanah 10–30%. Secara keseluruhan, kenaikan suhu tidak selalu diikuti oleh lonjakan jumlah hotspot yang signifikan. Akan tetapi, apabila dilihat secara spasial suhu tetap memiliki peran karena hotspot lebih banyak terdistribusi pada wilayah-wilayah dengan suhu yang relatif tinggi. Temuan ini memberikan dasar ilmiah bagi pengembangan sistem peringatan dini karhutla berbasis parameter meteorologis serta mendukung pengelolaan adaptif lahan gambut untuk mengurangi risiko kebakaran di Pulau Kalimantan.Abstract Kalimantan Island is a region with a high frequency of forest and land fires (known as karhutla), particularly in its extensive peatland areas. This study aims to: (1) identify the spatial distribution and temporal frequency of hotspots across Kalimantan Island, particularly on peatland and non-peatland areas; (2) analyze the monthly spatial and temporal variations of rainfall, air temperature, and soil moisture on peatland and non-peatland; and (3) determine the meteorological variables that most influence the number of hotspots in peatland and non-peatland areas. Hotspot data were obtained from MODIS imagery with a 1 km resolution, while rainfall and 2 m air temperature data were derived from ERA5 (0.25° resolution), and soil moisture data were obtained from SMAP L4 Global 9-km Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture. A negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess the influence of meteorological factors on hotspot intensity. The results show that hotspots were more concentrated on peatland (6,184 points) than on non-peatland (4,848 points). Soil moisture was found to be the most significant factor influencing the increase in hotspot numbers, followed by rainfall. Most hotspots occurred in areas with rainfall <100 mm/month, temperature >25°C, and soil moisture ranging from 10–30%. Overall, temperature increases were not always followed by significant rises in hotspot numbers; however, spatially, temperature still played a role, as hotspots were more frequently distributed in areas with relatively high temperatures. These findings provide a scientific basis for developing an early warning system for forest and land fires based on meteorological parameters and support adaptive peatland management to reduce fire risks in Kalimantan Island.Submitted: 2025-07-16 Revisions: 2025-09-21 Accepted: 2024-09-11 Published: 2025-11-07]]>
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