<![CDATA[This study investigates the emergence and escalation of the Mahmuda ter- rorist group in Ilorin, Kwara State, historically one of Nigeria’s most peaceful regions and explores the implications for national security. Drawing on the fragile state theory and the ungoverned spaces framework, the study em- ploys qualitative analysis based on secondary data sources including media reports, expert interviews, and policy documents. The findings reveal that Mahmuda originated as a religious group offering social services but gradu- ally transformed into a violent network exploiting ungoverned spaces such as the Kainji Lake National Park. The group leveraged socioeconomic dis- content, weak state capacity, porous borders, and religious influence to radicalize and mobilize followers. Initial state responses were marked by denial and poor coordination, allowing the group to entrench its operations. The study emphasizes that unless Nigeria addresses the structural drivers of fra- gility which include poverty, unemployment, weak institutions, and the ero- sion of public trust, such groups will continue to flourish. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at reinforcing state authority, community resilience, and inter-agency collaboration.]]>
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