Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): Januari: Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi

Analisis dan Peramalan Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) Periode 2020-2025 Menggunakan Model Arima

Hildah Meliyana (Unknown)
Attabik Syifaul Jinan (Unknown)
Siti Nur Rosidah (Unknown)
Achmad Budi Susetyo (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Dec 2025

Abstract

This study aims to estimate changes in the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) from 2020 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The growth of the Islamic stock market in Indonesia has increased rapidly, driven by public awareness of investments that follow sharia principles, as well as changes in macro and microeconomic conditions, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic which has had a significant impact on the financial market. This study relies on monthly ISSI data taken from official sources and analyzed with a quantitative approach using the time series method using EViews version 13 software. Statistical analysis and stationarity tests indicate that the ISSI data exhibits an increasing trend pattern and quite high volatility, so that a differentiation process is necessary to achieve stationarity. Based on the results of model testing and the selection of optimal information criteria, the ARIMA (1,1,1) model was selected as the most appropriate to capture the autocorrelation pattern and produce accurate short-term predictions. Projections indicate a stable growth trend until the end of 2025, with an estimated index of more than 8.3 million. The findings of this study indicate that the ARIMA model is an effective tool for forecasting ISSI movements and can be a strategic consideration for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers in developing sustainable investment strategies in the Indonesian Islamic stock market.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JIESA

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi (JIESA) merupakan jurnal yang dikhususkan untuk publikasi artikel ilmiah yang diterbitkan oleh Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia. Jurnal ini terbit 4 kali dalam setahun yaitu pada bulan Januari, Maret, Mei, Juli, September, dan November. Misi ...