Journal of Accounting and Investment
Vol. 27 No. 1 (2026): January 2026

Can bitcoin serve as a reliable safe haven? Amid uncertainty and volatility

Nugraha, Pazri (Unknown)
Saptutyningsih, Endah (Unknown)
Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha (Unknown)
Darsono, Susilo Nur AJi Cokro (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jan 2026

Abstract

Research aims: This study examines whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe-haven asset amid global market uncertainty during the 2022–2025 period, characterized by geopolitical tensions, post-pandemic inflation, and heightened financial volatility.Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs a quantitative approach using daily data on Bitcoin, gold, oil, the S&P 500 index, and the Volatility Index (VIX) from January 2022 to June 2025. All variables are transformed into logarithmic returns and analyzed using an ARCH model to capture time-varying volatility and assess the influence of global market factors on Bitcoin returns..Research findings: The empirical results indicate that the VIX has a statistically significant negative effect on Bitcoin returns, implying that rising global uncertainty weakens rather than strengthens Bitcoin’s value. The S&P 500 exerts a significant positive influence, showing that Bitcoin moves pro-cyclically with equity markets and behaves like a risky asset. Oil prices have no significant impact, while gold returns exhibit a significant but unstable co-movement, lacking consistent value preservation. Overall, these findings reject Bitcoin’s safe-haven role and characterize it as a speculative digital asset with high sensitivity to stock market dynamics.Theoretical contribution/Originality: This study contributes to the safe-haven and digital finance literature by providing recent empirical evidence that distinguishes Bitcoin from genuine safe-haven assets. Grounded in formal safe-haven theory and volatility dynamics, it challenges the “digital gold” narrative and clarifies the boundary between high-risk digital assets and traditional safe havens.Practitioner/Policy implication: For investors, the results of this study confirm the need for caution in treating Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification instrument, as its behavior is more like that of a risky asset than a hedge asset. For Policymakers and regulators, these results show the importance of public education regarding Bitcoin's volatility risks and its limitations as a safe haven.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ai

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

JAI receives rigorous articles that have not been offered for publication elsewhere. JAI focuses on the issue related to accounting and investments that are relevant for the development of theory and practices of accounting in Indonesia and southeast asia especially. Therefore, JAI accepts the ...