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All Journal Journal of Accounting and Investment Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Research in Accounting Journal
Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Can bitcoin serve as a reliable safe haven? Amid uncertainty and volatility Nugraha, Pazri; Saptutyningsih, Endah; Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha; Darsono, Susilo Nur AJi Cokro
Journal of Accounting and Investment Vol. 27 No. 1: January 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jai.v27i1.28742

Abstract

Research aims: This study examines whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe-haven asset amid global market uncertainty during the 2022–2025 period, characterized by geopolitical tensions, post-pandemic inflation, and heightened financial volatility.Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs a quantitative approach using daily data on Bitcoin, gold, oil, the S&P 500 index, and the Volatility Index (VIX) from January 2022 to June 2025. All variables are transformed into logarithmic returns and analyzed using an ARCH model to capture time-varying volatility and assess the influence of global market factors on Bitcoin returns..Research findings: The empirical results indicate that the VIX has a statistically significant negative effect on Bitcoin returns, implying that rising global uncertainty weakens rather than strengthens Bitcoin’s value. The S&P 500 exerts a significant positive influence, showing that Bitcoin moves pro-cyclically with equity markets and behaves like a risky asset. Oil prices have no significant impact, while gold returns exhibit a significant but unstable co-movement, lacking consistent value preservation. Overall, these findings reject Bitcoin’s safe-haven role and characterize it as a speculative digital asset with high sensitivity to stock market dynamics.Theoretical contribution/Originality: This study contributes to the safe-haven and digital finance literature by providing recent empirical evidence that distinguishes Bitcoin from genuine safe-haven assets. Grounded in formal safe-haven theory and volatility dynamics, it challenges the “digital gold” narrative and clarifies the boundary between high-risk digital assets and traditional safe havens.Practitioner/Policy implication: For investors, the results of this study confirm the need for caution in treating Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification instrument, as its behavior is more like that of a risky asset than a hedge asset. For Policymakers and regulators, these results show the importance of public education regarding Bitcoin's volatility risks and its limitations as a safe haven.
Capital Structure, Investment Opportunity Set, and Corporate Social Responsibility as Determinants of Firm Value in Indonesian State-Owned Enterprises Kusdiana, Yayu; Yusnelly, Arie; Firmansyah, Muhammad; Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha
Research in Accounting Journal (RAJ) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): RAJ (Research in Accounting Journal)
Publisher : Yayasan Pendidikan Riset dan Pengembangan Intelektual (YRPI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37385/raj.v6i2.10530

Abstract

This study examines the effect of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), Investment Opportunity Set (IOS), and Capital Structure on the firm value of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2018–2022 period. Firm value represents investors’ assessment of a company’s future prospects and sustainability, particularly for SOEs that carry both economic and social responsibilities. This research adopts a quantitative approach with a causal research design, utilizing secondary data derived from published financial and annual reports. The data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to evaluate both the measurement and structural models. The findings reveal that the Investment Opportunity Set (IOS) has a positive and significant effect on firm value, indicating that growth opportunities and future investment prospects are strongly considered by investors in valuing SOEs. In contrast, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Capital Structure do not show a significant direct effect on firm value. These results suggest that market participants place greater emphasis on growth potential rather than on leverage decisions or CSR disclosures in assessing SOE performance. The model explains a substantial proportion of the variance in firm value, indicating that IOS, CSR, and Capital Structure jointly contribute to explaining firm valuation, although other factors beyond the model also play a role. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the determinants of firm value in Indonesian SOEs, highlighting the dominant role of growth opportunities in shaping market perception. The findings offer practical implications for policymakers and SOE management in formulating strategic financial and investment policies to enhance firm value.
Geopolitical risks, bitcoin, economic policy uncertainty, and global commodity prices as determinants of sustainable stock market performance: Evidence from Brazil Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro; Handayani, Sintia; Mutiara, Intan; Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha; Chong, Fennee; Johari, Sobar M.
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 27 No. 1: April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

This study investigates the short-run and long-run effects of geopolitical risk (GPR), Bitcoin (BTC) prices, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world oil prices, world gold prices, and the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) on Brazil's Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE B3). Employing monthly data from January 2019 to December 2024 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing framework, the analysis reveals asymmetric and time-horizon-dependent dynamics. In the short run, gold prices exert a statistically significant negative effect on the ISE B3, consistent with asset-substitution behavior under market stress, whereas the DJSI exerts a positive and significant influence, reflecting the transmission of global sustainability sentiment. In the long run, EPU and oil prices impose significant negative effects, while GPR and Bitcoin exert significant positive effects on the index. A robustness specification excluding DJSI confirms that the core results for EPU, oil, GPR, and Bitcoin are stable, while revealing that omitting the global sustainability benchmark modestly amplifies the estimated magnitudes of GPR and Bitcoin suggesting partial overlap in the channels through which global sentiment affects the ISE B3. These findings contribute to the nascent literature on the macrofinancial determinants of emerging-market sustainability indices and provide actionable insights for portfolio managers, ESG-oriented investors, and policymaker’s.
Co-Authors Arie Yusnelly Chong, Fennee Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Endah Saptutyningsih Handayani, Sintia Johari, Sobar M. Kusdiana, Yayu Muhammad Firmansyah Mutiara, Intan Nugraha, Pazri