Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Keuangan
Volume 4 Issue 2, Desember 2025

Economic growth and unemployment in Indonesia: A short-run and long-run analysis using the ARDL approach

Anwar, Aminuddin (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Feb 2026

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to analyze the dynamic aspects determining unemployment in Indonesia for the period 1994–2024.Methods – This research utilizes a time series data analysis in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach.Findings – The study concludes that in the long run, inflation and government expenditure have a negative impact on unemployment. Meanwhile, in the short run, the lag value of unemployment, economic growth, and inflation influence the dynamic condition of unemployment.Implication – The implications of this study are more oriented towards strengthening monetary and fiscal policies to reduce dynamic unemployment in Indonesia.Originality – This research contributes to the analysis of the dynamic aspects determining unemployment in Indonesia by using a time series data approach with ARDL. AbstrakTujuan – Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis aspek dinamis penentu pengangguran di Indonesia untuk periode 1994 -2024.Metode – Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis data runtut waktu di Indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).Temuan – Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa pada jangka panjang inflasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah berimplikasi negatif terhadap pengangguran, sementara itu pada jangka pendek nilai lag pengguran, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi memiliki pengaruh terhadap kondisi dinamis pengangguran. Implikasi – Implikasi dari penelitian ini lebih berorientasi pada penguatan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal dalam menurunkan pengangguran dinamis di Indonesia.Orisinalitas – Penelitian ini berkontribusi terhadap analisis aspek dinamis penentu pengangguran di Indonesia menggunakan pendekatan data runtut waktu dengan ARDL.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JKEK

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Keuangan aims to publish scientific articles that examine and analyze policies in the field of Economics and Finance. This journal publishes the results of theoretical and empirical research that has contributed to policy development in the field of Economics and ...