Economics and Digital Business Review
Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026)

Financial Stress-Test of the Palm Oil Industry: Bankruptcy Prediction Using the Modified Altman Z-Score During the Downturn Phase

Polii, Harke Revo Leonard (Unknown)
Kainde, Sandra J.R. (Unknown)
Pangemanan, Rifal Richard (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
11 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study aims to predict the bankruptcy potential of Plantation Sub-Sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the critical downturn cycle of 2017-2019. This period serves as a stress-test window following the commodity boom. Employing a descriptive quantitative approach, the research analyzes secondary data from 10 companies selected through purposive sampling. The primary analytical tool is the Modified Altman Z-Score model. The results indicate severe financial distress within the sector due to price volatility and aggressive downstreaming policies. Specifically, out of the 10 sampled companies, only 1 company was classified as "Healthy" (Z > 2.60), 1 company was identified as "Vulnerable" or in the grey area (1.10 < Z < 2.60), and 8 companies were predicted to be "Bankrupt" (Z < 1.10). These empirical findings suggest a critical vulnerability in the plantation sector, highlighting an urgent need for financial restructuring and strategic management improvements to navigate post-boom challenges and ensure long-term sustainability. Keywords: Bankruptcy Prediction, Modified Altman Z-Score, Plantation Sub-Sector, Financial Distress.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ecotal

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Economics and Digital Business Review, is published by STIE Amkop Makassar in 2020, with registered number ISSN : 2774-2563 (Online), is a peer-reviewed journal published Economics and Digital Business Review published two times a year (January & July) by STIE Amkop Makassar, It provides an academic ...