Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines
Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): Return: Study of Management, Economic and Business

Analysis Of The Effect Of World Coffee Prices, Exchange Rates, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, And Coffee Production On The Value Of Coffee Exports In Indonesia

Setiawan, Fadlan Ravi (Unknown)
Parianom, Raden (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of World Coffee Prices, Exchange Rates, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inflation, and Coffee Production on the Value of Indonesian Coffee Exports during the period 2000–2023. This study uses annual secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, the World Bank, CEIC, and the Ministry of Trade. The analysis method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) to identify the influence of independent variables in the short and long term. The results show that World Coffee Prices do not have a significant effect on coffee export value, and Exchange Rates do not have a significant effect in either the short or long term. The FDI variable shows no significant effect in the short term but has a significant positive effect in the long term, proving that foreign investment has a structural impact on increasing coffee exports. Inflation shows no significant effect in both periods, indicating that changes in domestic price levels do not directly affect the value of coffee exports. Coffee production has no significant effect in the short or long term. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the dynamics of Indonesian coffee exports are more influenced by global market conditions, production quality, long-term investment, and the competitiveness of the national coffee industry.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

return

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The Journal RETURN is a double blind peer-reviewed academic journal and open access to social and scientific fields. The journal is published monthly by PT. Publikasiku Academic Solution. The Jurnal RETURN provides a means for sustained discussion of relevant issues that fall within the focus and ...