UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

Forecasting the Consumer Price Index of Padang City in 2024 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method

Suci (Unknown)
Devi Yopita Sipayung (Unknown)
Dila Sari (Unknown)
Fajri Juli Rahman Nur Zendrato (Unknown)
Hadid Habiburrahman (Unknown)
Dwi Sulistiowati (Unknown)
Zilrahmi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Feb 2026

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which changes, is influenced by fluctuations in the prices of goods and services in Padang City every year. This is triggered by various factors that are of primary concern to the government. This study uses the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to forecast CPI in 2024 by relying on monthly data on the Padang City CPI for the period 2020 to 2023 obtained from BPS. This analysis identifies the ARIMA model (0,2,1) as the best and most optimal model based on the AIC and BIC values, does not show any autocorrelation, and is normally distributed. The forecasting model used shows a smooth and stable increase in the CPI in the period from January to December 2024. This model provides a positive signal for people's purchasing power and economic stability in Padang City in 2024. The results obtained are expected to be used as a strategic tool for preparing future goods and services price planning with more precision.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ujsds

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its ...