MEJ (Mathematics Education Journal)
Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): MEJ Vol 9 No.2

Exponential Concept Modeling for Rainfall Duration Forecasting at SMAN1 Sukapura

Agustin, Safrina Ayunindar Dwi (Unknown)
Jenis (Unknown)
Sugiono, Moch. (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Apr 2026

Abstract

This study aims to predict rainfall duration using an exponential approach based on applied mathematics. Data were obtained from three rainfall events with different characteristics that were observed directly at SMAN 1 Sukapura. The research method used an applied observational quantitative study of a cross-sectional nature. The modeling results show that the decay constant value varies between rainfall events, reflecting differences in the rate of intensity decline after reaching its peak. The predicted time of rainfall cessation differed by 4–6 minutes from the field observations. Evaluation of the model's accuracy using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) yielded values of 1.32%, 2.10%, and 3.64%, all of which were below the 10% threshold. These findings indicate that the exponential model is capable of quantitatively representing the decay pattern of rainfall intensity with excellent accuracy but has limitations in representing fluctuations in rainfall intensity.

Copyrights © 2025






Journal Info

Abbrev

MEJ

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

MEJ (Mathematics Education Journal) is a journal that has a mission to publish the results of research, studies and / or innovation of quality in the field of education and learning from all aspects of mathematics education. To accelerate the transfromasi and implementation of science and technology ...