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All Journal MEJ (Mathematics Education Journal)
Agustin, Safrina Ayunindar Dwi
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Mathematics

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Exponential Concept Modeling for Rainfall Duration Forecasting at SMAN1 Sukapura Agustin, Safrina Ayunindar Dwi; Jenis; Sugiono, Moch.
Mathematics Education Journal Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): MEJ Vol 9 No.2
Publisher : Department of Mathematics Education University of Muhammadiyah Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22219/mej.v9i2.43528

Abstract

This study aims to predict rainfall duration using an exponential approach based on applied mathematics. Data were obtained from three rainfall events with different characteristics that were observed directly at SMAN 1 Sukapura. The research method used an applied observational quantitative study of a cross-sectional nature. The modeling results show that the decay constant value varies between rainfall events, reflecting differences in the rate of intensity decline after reaching its peak. The predicted time of rainfall cessation differed by 4–6 minutes from the field observations. Evaluation of the model's accuracy using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) yielded values of 1.32%, 2.10%, and 3.64%, all of which were below the 10% threshold. These findings indicate that the exponential model is capable of quantitatively representing the decay pattern of rainfall intensity with excellent accuracy but has limitations in representing fluctuations in rainfall intensity.
Co-Authors Jenis Sugiono, Moch.