JPIG
Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Maret

Pemodelan Spasial Kerawanan Longsor di Kabupaten Temanggung Menggunakan Regresi Logistik dengan Seleksi Variabel Stepwise AIC

Dian Nurfita Sari (Magister Geografi, Universitas Gadjah Mada)
Guruh Samodra (Departemen Geografi Lingkungan, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta)
Danang Sri Hadmoko (Departemen Geografi Lingkungan, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Mar 2026

Abstract

This study aims to produce a landslide susceptibility map for Temanggung Regency, Central Java, using a logistic regression approach optimized through a stepwise Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) procedure. This method was selected to address the limitations of subjective scoring and weighting approaches commonly used in previous studies. The stepwise AIC was applied to an initial model incorporating topographic, hydrological, and anthropogenic variables, resulting in a gradual reduction of the AIC value from 1267.33 to 1258.46. The optimal model with the lowest AIC consists of elevation, slope aspect (cos), land use, distance to roads, Stream Power Index (SPI), and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), representing the most statistically efficient combination of controlling factors. The dataset comprises 586 landslide events recorded between 2020 and 2024, divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets, with an equal number of randomly selected non-landslide points. All variables show Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values below 5, indicating no significant multicollinearity. The model demonstrates good predictive performance, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.703. Spatial analysis reveals that moderate and high susceptibility classes dominate the study area, covering more than 86% of the total area.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

JPIG

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Environmental Science Social Sciences

Description

JPIG published all research results in the field of geography studies, include: 1. Research in the Field of Geography Education 2. Reseach in The Field of Human Geography 3. Research in The Field of Physical Geography 4. Research on Natural Resources and Environmental Management 5. Research on ...