Journal Of Economic Cluster
Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): JoEC: Journal of Economic Cluster

Early Warning System for Islamic Banks: a Panel Logit Approach to Financial Distress in Indonesia




Article Info

Publish Date
27 Dec 2025

Abstract

This study uses a quantitative approach with a causal-comparative design. The population is all Islamic Banks (BUS) in Indonesia, with a sample of 10 BUS selected through purposive sampling during the 2019–2024 period, resulting in 60 panel data observation units. The analysis technique used is Panel Data Logistic Regression to estimate the probability of Financial Distress. Model validation is carried out through a classification matrix and Area Under the Curve (AUC). The results of the study indicate that the model has very strong discriminatory power with an overall prediction accuracy reaching 100% (Nagelkerke R Square = 1.000). The regression coefficients indicate that Financing Risk (NPF) and Operational Inefficiency (BOPO) have a significant positive effect on the probability of Financial Distress. Meanwhile, Bank Size (SIZE) also shows a positive effect that rejects the 'Too Big to Fail' hypothesis, and Liquidity (FDR) shows a negative effect, functioning as a buffer for profitability. This study concludes that NPF and BOPO are the most critical early warning indicators, and the Logit model built can be a valid and specific Early Warning System for BUS regulators and management.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JoEC

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Focus and Scope Journal Of Economic Cluster is a peer-reviewed journal on economics science. Specifically, the journal will deal with following topics: Monetary Economy Public Economics Human Resource Economics Accounting Management Development Economics Economic Education Financial Economics ...