Social media X is a dynamic public space where opinions on social issues, including the Affan Kurniawan case, spread rapidly. This study aims to analyze sentiment distribution, compare the performance of Multinomial Naïve Bayes and Linear Support Vector Machine (LinearSVC), and evaluate classification consistency under a unified evaluation framework. Indonesian-language posts were collected using keyword-based crawling and cleaned from 10,624 to 7,431 valid records (28 August–2 September 2025). The data were preprocessed through normalization, tokenization, stopword removal, and stemming, and labeled into negative, neutral, and positive sentiments using a lexicon-based approach. The results show a dominance of negative sentiment (50.26%), followed by neutral (30.96%) and positive (18.77%). Using Bag-of-Words features and an 80:20 train–test split, LinearSVC outperformed Naïve Bayes with higher accuracy (0.826 vs 0.745) and macro F1-score (0.759 vs 0.579). This study highlights the effectiveness of SVM as a stronger baseline model for Indonesian sentiment classification on social media data.
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