The Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and ASEAN Foreign Exchange Reserves with the Unemployment Rate as a Moderating Variable

Septya, Caroline Rose
Riyanto, Wahyu Hidayat
Sulistyono, Setyo Wahyu

Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Vol. 10 No. 02 (2026): Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi

This study examines the impact of exports, imports, exchange rates, and FDI on foreign exchange reserves in ASEAN countries, with unemployment as a moderating variable. Using panel data from eight ASEAN nations (2014–2023), the analysis applies the Random Effect Model and the Moderated Regression Analysis. Results show that exports and exchange rates significantly boost reserves, while imports and FDI are not significant. However, unemployment weakens the effect of exports but strengthens the impact of imports, exchange rates, and FDI. These findings highlight the critical role of labor market conditions in shaping macroeconomic policy and maintaining foreign exchange reserve stability in the ASEAN region.